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| Author: | Landsoul [ April 25th, 2011, 5:12 pm ] |
| Blog Subject: | Spreadsheet dev. blog #2: Probability/Statstics Magic |
Yesterday I arrived at the solution to step 1 of the problem of predicting rotation decisions given variability of rage gains. Step 1 is finding the probability distribution of rage gains on a given time interval. Due to same-speed weaponry, there are multiple ways to arrive at the same rage income amount via multiple combinations of hits/misses of melee swings. This proved a kind of organizational challenge because the solution had to work for both fury styles, and a wide range of attack rates and time intervals. In lay terms, probability distribution basically is the answer to this question: what is the probability to get each individual rage amount such that all probabilities add up to 100%. Here's a picture of a scenario with average swing speeds with dual 2.6, 13% miss rate, and 4x a length of a standard dual-GCD combo As the number of swings checked increases, since the experiment follows either multinomial or binomial distribution and due to increased observations of misses, a phenomenon occurs via the Central Limit Theorem which allows the shape of the distribution to mostly follow the familiar bell-shape. I can use this dynamic solution to solve step 2, which will be determining the probability distribution of rage-based rotation decisions per given sections in the rotation. The goal is to be able to predict where Heroic Strikes are in a rotation, how Battle Trance is utilized, and if and how abilities are skipped due to rage lulls. The original motivation behind this system was to have a system that can be used to more properly estimate Execute damage. Execute damage has always been an unanswered problem in my spreadsheets, and hopefully I will be able to deliver on it this time. The sheet is so much more powerful now than it used to be when it comes to compartmentalization; It's so much more de-vacuumed, heterogeneous, salad-bowl, whatever you want to call it, than before. I'm actually having some fun though utilizing the training I am getting at school for actual projects. |
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| Author: | Landsoul [ April 12th, 2011, 3:16 am ] |
| Blog Subject: | 7 - HD Streaming Time |
Finally... ![]() ![]() Time to stream raids! Primary: http://www.justin.tv/vtgaming Secondary: http://www.justin.tv/landsoul_vodka |
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| Author: | Landsoul [ March 14th, 2011, 5:18 pm ] |
| Blog Subject: | 6 - Mr Excel... |
Mr. Excel I know I haven't been active on forums and stuff for a couple months, but that's for good reason. I've been pretty busy with school/life, and working on the spreadsheet. The spreadsheet, by the way, is coming along beautifully. I am introducing a handful of new analysis tools which will help you understand the differences and nuances. I hope to have a working releasable version before the Firelands raiding tier. Again, sorry for the wait. ![]() The second cool new feature of the spreadsheet, is the Ability calculator. You can enter -any- parameter to be up or down, choose an ability, and its damage value / DWounds input will be shown. This is more or less a 'What If' tool and is a direct result of me setting up the functions in a much more accessible and dynamic way. Third, is a section for viewing ability weights. For exmaple, you will easily be able to see the difference between trading Colossus Smash and Slam in alternate GCD positions. Or, how much a Bloodthirst does on average or in maximum. Looking at these may hopefully allow users to understand nuances in rotation and help in making better decisions when those moments of non 100% certainty come up. Also, I have included a handful of buff and debuff sets to easily switch between orientations, such as fighting a target dummy to full raid synergy. You can choose between comparing a homogenous DPS calculation (much like the WotLK spreadsheet) or using your custom parameters mentioned earlier. The homogeneous DPS system now works off a given inputted fight length, which will automatically use the correct amount of partial and full death wishes and trinkets etc. The custom system will be more powerful however, and I will try to make both of the systems useful in different situations. Setting up these systems and getting them working in Excel has been quite the adventure for me, and it has been taking a lot of work, experimenting, and learning. My first release will a BETA version, and will be missing B.net armory import (since the new XML isn't out) and missing Arms DPS. Those will come as soon as possible and I am able. I'm speculating Arms to be a very viable single target route for DPS Warriors in future patches, that is if they don't get nerfed for PvP reasons... After the spreadsheet gets some face and I can do rotational research with it, I'll begin to start putting together material for my coaching service so I can start that back up again! I love to teach, and I can't wait until I have some free time to do it! Raiding The first tier of Cataclysm Heroic Raiding has been good to me so far. I've set a handful of #1 Fury parses on Heroic bosses and still own a few on this date. If you've checked http://www.worldoflogs.com lately, you've seen them. Special thanks to <vodka> as always for killing internet dragons efficiently! I've also setup a livestream and may be streaming raids in the not too distant future. I'm not too sure how streaming will affect my CPU performance in a raid and don't know yet what the best streaming settings are that won't get me killed so we'll see where that goes. If you let me know if you want to watch my stream personally, it will give me more motivation. Until Next time. |
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| Author: | Landsoul [ January 8th, 2011, 9:10 am ] |
| Blog Subject: | 5 - Cataclysm, and Raiding, and Raiding, and Raiding.... |
It's been a while since I posted a blog, and for good reason. Fall/Winter is a busy time for me, with the end of the school semester, holidays, and on top of that character and raid progression. Priorities Priorities. The past few weeks I've literally been eating sleeping and WoWing due to the amount of time required to raid many many hours a week and maintain my characters. It's really a lot of 'work.' While frustrating and draining at times, in the end it will be extremely rewarding. I haven't had any time at all to work on solid Warrior DPS theorycraft, or the spreadsheet, or my coaching site. I've only managed some pages of 'napkin-math' on a legal pad. Cataclysm has been great so far. It is in my opinion the most vast and well done expansion (minus the dozens of bugs) in terms of how the game feels. Dungeons are somewhat challenging and actually require you to pay attention and do your job to succeed. Epic gear can't be handed to you by running the heroic daily and looting the end boss. The raid bosses are tuned where you can't simply walk in with the previous expansion's raid gear and clear it in one night. Heroic raid bosses make you want to HATE the game down to its core, which is cool in a sense that not the average raiding guild can handle it. A lot of the heroic bosses right now require either rediculous strategies or raid compositions. While it's fun to try to work on a rediculous boss, from a design perspective I don't agree that an overtuned boss should be killable by exploitation or making an unbalanced raid comp. A well-designed boss should be able to be killed with a balanced raid and not cause an instant raid wipe given a certain RNG combo. At this point of writing this blog, we have just defeated Valiona and Theralion, and have completed 8 out of 12 heroic bosses (excluding Sinestra) in 25 man. The hardest and most perplexing nights are yet to come with progression on final Bosses. As soon as progression dies down, I will be working on material as much as I can! What I have plans for is what I have been known for. I will have two functioning Warriors that I will play regularly, one for dedicated to Fury and another dedicated to Arms. A complete theorycrafitng package and a spreadsheet tools will follow suit. As for right now though, I just don't have a lot of energy to do it. I've been playing Fury for PvP and so far I am enjoying its new mobility and burst potential. There's a specific recipe for seriously punishing and suprising your opponent(s) which I won't give away. You should find out yourself if you want to! Most (almost all) Warriors choose Arms for PvP so I decided to be a unique snowflake and make Fury work. So far so good. The only things that Arms has over Fury in PvP is the ability to punish people from stacking up (Sweeping Strikes), temporary immunity to crowd control (Bladestorm), and a melee 5 second stun (Throwdown), which can arguably be replaced by a 4 second intercept stun with the glyph. Fury boons much more mobility with its 15s intercept, root break/intercept refresh, and 45s Heroic Leap. Fury also has more stats via a second 2 handed weapon. I redid my UI, again... It has some custom art panels now and looks absolutely sick. You can see it sometime soon when I start Frapsing some Heroic 25 bosses in the near future. Thankyou for reading. Until next time. |
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| Author: | Landsoul [ July 3rd, 2010, 11:33 pm ] |
| Blog Subject: | Blog 4 - Halion Vid, Records, Other things |
It's been a while since my last blog, but the more to talk about! The Ruby Sanctum was released this Tuesday and we got it down the next day after having a night to sleep on it. The video is out on the vodka Youtube channel with Kina's POV and on my Youtube channel with my POV. The link is here: http://www.youtube.com/user/landsoulwow. My next project will probably be Peril in Blood 2, showcasing some face smashing with Shadowmourne in line with some heavy rock music. I have a new 1 TB hard drive, so I will be able to record more clips to select from for the 11 minute video. This also opens up the possibility of recording full arena games to witness the unbelievable results the legendary can provide. I've been receiving a lot of trolling lately about how I'm not one of the best Warriors playing the game, and that I'm full of myself with my coaching service, and that I'm the biggest tool on the internet, and that my parses are mediocre or whatever... Well I got my Shadowmourne just last week, and here are the results of that: No Tricks or Hysteria or gimmicks: ![]() ![]() You can check WoL yourself! So let the trolls keep on trolling if that's what makes them feel worthwhile. Also over the last few weeks I redid my UI again. The final result allows more consolidation of frames and buttons so it looks more centralized and easier to read. This redo also allows me the ability to seamlessly incorporate additional abilities and functions that will come with Cataclysm. Speaking of Cataclysm, the NDA was lifted this week with the start of closed beta. I am now able to talk about anything involving Warrior DPS changes, mechanics, and available gear and its implications. Our talent trees are currently in a halfway state with many things not working and imbalanced. Inner rage, the "limit break" ability, is trainable yet does not do anything at all, and the tooltip is incorrect. It seems like they are still working on this ability and turning the dials. Also what has been talked about by GC is the removal of Heroic Strike and Cleave from the GCD while still leaving it an instant ability and giving it a short cooldown. With this consideration, it will allow the use of two instant attacks at once (HS and something else) for an opportunity of large burst or rage dumping whenever you want without the GCD restriction. This I think is an amazing idea, mostly because if rage dumping is needed then you need to do it immediately to be most effective, regardless of if a GCD is free. Also having the short cooldown will prevent someone from literally spamming HS in a small window. This idea will allow making rotations in the spreadsheet so much simpler compared to if HS was on the GCD in it's current design. Also, this change may encourage us to stand in fire for extra rage generation to use this new HS as much as possible. I would really like it if rage generation from taking damage was only from direct attacks to discourage this kind of behavior. That way, we as DPS Warriors won't be pressured to stand in fire or AOE, yet still allow Warrior tanks to generate rage from being hit directly. Arms DPS is more or less the same with the same abilities and style as WotLK, with some changes in the ability priority. Execute is the strongest ability for Arms at high rage levels with the +10 Rage Execute Glyph. It literally hits for 100% of your attack power if you have 90 rage or more with this Glyph. Getting a SD proc is highly beneficial now because you can line up that huge hit. 0.5s Slams aren't very worthwhile anymore with the current HS on the GCD and can be used as a stronger filler. The extra 5 talents don't bring Arms much of anything new except the option to go into Precision and Dual Wield Specialization in Fury or One Handed Spec in Protection. Arms right how has incredible rage generation due to the fact that the mastery is crit chance instead of Armor Penetration and the Endless Rage talent. I feel that I'm able to unload more consistently as Arms in comparison to Fury. Gharanov (Gharr on Gilneas), my Worgen Warrior is almost max level on the beta. I plan to use him as my main alt so that I can be more intimate with Arms spec. Also, I want to use him as my main PvP character. The 3 minute sprint is invaluable and I don't see Landsoul being as successful without it - we'll have to how they rebalance the racial abilities for combat. I don't want to respec 3 times a week either. Specialization is the key, and having two characters with 4 specs total will allow me to achieve that. I want to be as good at both specs because I'm hoping Arms will become as viable as Fury is, and both will remain competitive throughout the entire expansion. I'll have Gharanov as Arms DPS and PvP, and have Landsoul playing Fury specs. Fury has a few new concepts and tools available with the new tree as well as 5 more points. There are four different focus areas:
It looks like the talent Fury in the Blood will somehow increase our damage with Bloodrage active, but at the moment it doesn't work and it's design sounds like an Enrage effect, which is shared between Wrecking Crew and Enrage, which do not stack. I truly believe that Wrecking Crew, 2H spec, and 1H spec should not be accessible to Fury Warriors, because it causes a lot of disparity between TG and SMF, as well as makes mastery too important. I want to be able to choose between TG and SMF, not pigeonholed due to the placement of the talents. Now of course, all of this is up in the air because these trees will ultimately change, and change a lot. If you have not seen the new gearlists on MMO-Champion yet, then you might want to take a gander. You will see such items as the crafted polearm, which has like a 2850 top end or something silly. What the hell? Shadowmourne has a 1600 top end. That's more than 75% more damage! I'm glad I can upgrade my legendary within a few days of Cata being out. I'm also glad some of the 82 quest green weapons do as much damage. Really? Really? I wonder what the top tier weapons and armor will look like. Take a look at the items and the new talents. Take a look at how come of the abilities scale. 100% AP execute? We're going to be seeing ludicrous numbers. I guess that's why we play Warriors, though. Until next time. |
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